A Dangerous Gamble with Our Children
Douglas County is making a high-stakes bet with the future of its juvenile detention center that could have devastating consequences.
The County wants to build a $120M juvenile justice center, primarily to expand space for additional courts and attorneys’ offices. Proposed in that center is a 48-bed juvenile jail, at around $37M. The problem? Since 2014, the average daily population of the current Douglas County Juvenile Center has been about 77 kids with an average 50-day length of stay. So why build a 48-bed facility for 77 kids?
The County has offered this explanation: our consultant told us to do it.
In a space needs study commissioned by the County, “The recommended planning capacity of 48 juvenile detention beds assumes that Douglas County will enhance and expand alternatives to detention, as well as reform current practices related to the use of secure detention.” [pg 78] However, the consultant presented forecasts for the 2035 average daily population. The flawed statistical modeling gave estimates of 133 kids on the high side and -102 on the low side. [pg 46] How can we achieve negative population in a jail? How can we trust this report to be accurate?
The US Census Bureau projects that the general juvenile population in Douglas County will increase 30% by 2030. So, we expect an increase in the population, an increase in the number of courtrooms and judges, an increase in attorneys… but fewer kids in detention? How do these numbers work?
Nobody knows. On December 11, 2018, Commissioner Chris Rodgers said that the County does not use predictive analytics to forecast effectiveness of policy changes set forth in the Douglas County Juvenile Justice Comprehensive Plan. Without statistical modeling, they have no idea how those changes will affect the number of kids in detention… yet they are attempting to build a new jail that assumes their success.
Douglas County is gambling on hope. They hope that the reduced detention capacity will force changes upstream — by police, by prosecutors, by schools — that will reduce the number of kids in detention. See how that works?
If this gamble doesn’t pay off, our kids will suffer. They may be subject to overcrowding. They may be subject to detention in other counties. They may be subject to unknown holding policies because Douglas County does not have a plan for this scenario. They are hoping — without data — that everything will turn out okay.
Hope is not a strategy.
Government officials have a duty to protect the people they hold in the legal system. Douglas County Board of Commissioners is proposing major changes without using proper planning techniques to support their $120M construction project. They have refused to explain how their “comprehensive plan” will produce the “paradigm shift” they desire because they can’t explain it. They simply don’t know how to forecast changes, so they have latched onto hope.
Hundreds of counties and cities in the US use predictive analytics to forecast the results of policy changes. They use available data modeling tools to explore possible outcomes so they make informed decisions. Predictions are never perfect, but they help leaders prepare and plan better than sticking a finger in the wind.
Douglas County Board of Commissioners is playing a game of risk with kids who are already “at risk.” Somehow, they think that 133 to -102 kids will fit in 48 beds. Why are they comfortable with this? Why are their no-bid contractors going along? Why are you not demanding a stop to this project until the public gets a better explanation?
Douglas County Board of Commissioners: 402–444–7025
